University of Montana historian and Middle East expert Dr. Mehrdad Kia discusses the escalating conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States. While military strikes and regional tensions dominate headlines, Kia says the most important question may be what happens inside Iran itself. Click on the podcast as Dr. Kia describes what is happening on the ground in Iran, the people’s responses, and the role international pressure could play in shaping Iran’s future.
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Transcript (AI Edited):
Tom Schultz:
Who, what, where, when, and why? A lot of good policy movements begin with a question—sometimes as simple as that. “Why” is the tough one.
We’re asking straightforward questions about the Middle East escalation—this war involving Israel, Iran, the United States, and Iran’s proxies. The real story, I think, is what happens inside Iran. Could the Iranian people actually achieve regime change? It’s a brutal regime, in power since 1979, embedded in society. Reports say it recently killed tens of thousands of its own citizens. So here’s the question: Do the Iranian people have what it takes to achieve regime change, and what role might the outside world play?
We’ll explore that today with Dr. Mehrdad Kia on Voices of Montana.
We’re seeing the most dangerous escalation in years among Israel, the United States, and Iran. It began Saturday. Few were surprised. The attacks appear aimed at degrading Iran’s military capability and limiting its nuclear ambitions. Iran has responded with missile and drone strikes—against U.S. and other targets across the Persian Gulf, including Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait. The region is being reshaped. Oil is part of it, but this is bigger. The military confrontation is only one part of the story. The question remains: What happens now inside Iran?
Our guest is a friend of the program, an Iranian‑born American who has taught for years at the University of Montana, where he directs the Central and Southwest Asian Studies Center. He has extensive publications and expertise on life in Iran and lived there until around 1979, when the revolution occurred. Dr. Mehrdad Kia, thank you for coming on. I know it’s a sensitive time. I hope you’re well. How are your friends and family in Iran?
Dr. Mehrdad Kia:
Good morning, Tom. Thank you for the opportunity to speak to your listeners. It’s been very tough, and not just since the war began. For me, it started in January, when protests against the Islamic regime erupted and millions came into the streets. We were exhilarated by the outpouring of pro‑democracy sentiment. Their only “crime” was demanding freedom and a change in government.
The regime sent its thugs into the streets and, in less than 48 hours, massacred roughly 40,000 people. There are about 20,000 to 25,000, and according to some sources up to 50,000, prisoners—many very young, many professionals like doctors and nurses who went to help the wounded. Some wounded taken to hospitals were later shot in the head and killed in emergency rooms by security forces. These are facts some listeners may not know. There was a massacre in Iran in January, which also showed how unpopular and weak the government is.
I believe that was one reason President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu decided to strike last week. While no one likes wars—and Iranians are no exception—there was overwhelming support among Iranians, inside and in the diaspora, for eliminating Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, on Saturday, and for subsequent U.S. and Israeli strikes on military and security targets across Iran.
Do not listen to propaganda that claims Iranians are rallying around the regime. This regime is left with a small group dependent on it—paramilitary and security forces and their families. The overwhelming majority of Iranians support fundamental change.
For the first time, I see Iranians unified. They are bringing out the old flag of Iran—green, white, and red with the lion and sun—rejecting a religious dictatorship symbolized by the current flag’s Arabic “Allah.” They are unified and have a transitional figure—not a permanent leader—to guide the country to elections: Reza Pahlavi, the son of the late Shah who left Iran in 1979. He lives near Washington, D.C.
After the massacre, he called for demonstrations. The turnout shocked me: about 250,000 in Germany; 400,000 in Toronto; 350,000 in Los Angeles; and hundreds of thousands inside Iran. This shows Iranians are determined to remove the regime, which they view as a mafia strangling a beautiful country for 47 years—looting resources, funding proxy militias like Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen, and pouring money into a nuclear program and long‑range missiles to threaten Israel and vulnerable Arab neighbors like Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE.
They even attacked Oman, an intermediary between Iran and the U.S. in nuclear talks. After being attacked, Oman said it will no longer mediate. We are dealing with a murderous regime. It’s time for it to go, and for Iranians to use this opportunity to build a democratic, compassionate system that cares for its citizens rather than supporting terrorism.
Tom Schultz:
Let’s explore the military side first. The public doesn’t fully know Iran’s capabilities. Can Iran win this war? Do they have the strength to hold out? Perhaps the U.S. goal is disruption. Can the current regime hold out militarily and politically?
Dr. Mehrdad Kia:
They cannot win this war. Their definition of “victory” is survival—holding on to power. If they survive, they’ll claim victory. We should not allow that.
Before 1979, Iran had one of the best armed forces in the region—an excellent air force, a highly trained navy, and strong land forces. Many officers were U.S.‑trained. The late Shah’s son, now the opposition figure, trained as a fighter pilot in Texas. That air force is gone, which is why the U.S. and Israel have air supremacy over Iran.
The regime fights asymmetric warfare through proxies—Hezbollah in Lebanon, which began firing missiles into Israel as soon as the war started. Inside Iran, they rely on about 400,000 elite IRGC troops and the Basij (mobilization forces)—armed thugs used to intimidate civilians. There is also the regular Iranian Army—remnants from pre‑revolution days—who are not loyal to the regime. The regime fears them because of their size and independence. Whether they can move against the IRGC is uncertain.
We had hoped for a scenario where airstrikes occur and the Iranian people are the boots on the ground. But if President Trump asks people to stay home until operations finish, we can’t expect mass street action. It’s a dilemma. It’s only day six of the war. We’ve already done significant damage to military infrastructure. We need patience, continued support for Iranians’ quest for democracy, and to avoid impetuousness from Washington under media or political pressure. This regime built up its forces over 47 years.
Tom Schultz:
Good points. We’ll return after a break. Our guest is Dr. Mehrdad Kia, professor of history and specialist in Middle Eastern, Iranian, and Central Asian affairs at the University of Montana.
We’re asking: What happens inside Iran? The president has both stated and not stated that this is not about regime change—mixed signals—but many indicate regime change is necessary. Possible outcomes: revolution and regime change; military takeover; internal uprising leading to political reform; fragmentation and instability; or the regime survives but weakened. Many want to remove a regime they see as devilish, and there are long lists of attacks since 1979—not just against military targets. There are fears of dirty nuclear bombs and biological weapons. Many questions to answer.
Dr. Kia joins us as we explore Iran. We’ll take a call from Nancy in Roundup. Nancy, good morning—you’re on with Dr. Kia.
Caller (Nancy):
Thank you, Tom. Dr. Kia, first my condolences. God bless you, your family, and your friends in the region. For 47 years the Khomeinist regime has caused heartache and death. My heart is with you and the people of Iran.
President Trump has said our military operations have destroyed much of Iran’s navy—reports say 24 Iranian ships sunk—so the operation could be over sooner. My fear is the U.S. pulling out too soon, as happened before. I have two questions: Is it a bad idea to arm the Kurds now? And after victory, who will patrol the region—will Israel police the Middle East? Thank you, and God bless you.
Tom Schultz:
Thank you, Nancy. Two strong questions, and feel free to fold that into the broader question of the world’s response and the “after” picture.
Dr. Mehrdad Kia:
Nancy, thank you for your kind words and excellent questions. I’m reminded of Gen. Ulysses S. Grant at Fort Donelson. When asked for terms, he replied: “No terms except an unconditional and immediate surrender can be accepted.” That’s my position: the Iranian military must surrender. While doing so, they should help police the country during the transition, not rule it.
We have a transition plan and a transitional leader: Prince Reza Pahlavi, age 65. He is preparing to go as soon as conditions allow, though he’s not yet received a green light. He has broad legitimacy among Iranians. Some on the left react negatively when they hear “son of the Shah,” assuming a return to monarchy. That’s not the plan. He is not running for office; he would only serve as a transitional leader to free elections where Iranians choose their system—constitutional republic or constitutional monarchy, for example.
The goal during transition is to guarantee fundamental rights for every Iranian regardless of language, race, ethnicity, or religion—Christian, Jewish, Armenian, and others.
On arming the Kurds: The Kurds are wonderful people who have suffered greatly and must have equal rights in a future Iran. But arming one branch of the Iranian family against the rest could create disunity. We need unity behind Reza Pahlavi to remove the regime. The target is the regime. Don’t get distracted by side debates over personalities. The regime is near collapse—no economy, little support, relying on the IRGC. We should keep hitting military targets and rely on the Iranian people as the boots on the ground. No one I’ve spoken with wants U.S. troops in Iran. They need air support and sustained pressure until the regime crumbles.
Tom Schultz:
We have a listener question from Bill: Does the U.S. have a seat at the table in picking the next leader? Also, succession under the current regime is well established, but Israel and U.S. intelligence penetration has exposed vulnerabilities. How does that factor in?
Dr. Mehrdad Kia:
A quick irony: In 1979, the revolution denounced hereditary succession. Yet after Khamenei was killed Saturday, they immediately appointed his son as successor. It looks like monarchy—like North Korea, a “socialist monarchy.”
The U.S. will play a major role in determining the war’s outcome and influencing succession. But the less the new leadership appears externally imposed, the more legitimacy it will enjoy. No nation wants a government viewed as a puppet. If leadership looks like an American choice, it will lose legitimacy. Iranians must be actively involved. The name I’ve heard for months from across communities—Kurds, Persians, others—is Reza Pahlavi. We should support the people’s preference.
Tom Schultz:
And does he have military support?
Dr. Mehrdad Kia:
He did something important: he opened a confidential defection registry for members of the Iranian armed forces. Tens of thousands have registered. The last figure I saw was 57,000—people refusing to pick up a gun and kill citizens. There are many defectors from the army and some from the IRGC. Many IRGC fighters have fled to neighboring countries—Turkey, Afghanistan, and others. What remains is a smaller, dedicated force with no place to go, afraid of losing positions or facing justice, so they will fight to the end.
Tom Schultz:
A text from Big Timber asks: If regime change succeeds, will the Iranian diaspora return? And personally—would you return? There are millions abroad for obvious reasons. Would they go back? That could be important.
Dr. Mehrdad Kia:
There are about 8.5 to 10 million Iranians abroad, many in the U.S., highly educated and successful across sectors—business, tech, and especially medicine. For example, Los Angeles has more Iranian dentists than any Iranian city except Tehran.
We are Americans now—this is our home, and we’re proud of it. But many would go back to help, not necessarily to stay. Doctors could return to train new doctors and perform free surgeries for the wounded, for example. There’s a deep attachment to a 3,000‑year‑old culture—hospitable and kind—ruined by this regime.
Tom Schultz:
As a historian with personal ties, is it striking to watch history unfold in real time and see the pieces that must fall into place before someone can write the chapter?
Dr. Mehrdad Kia:
It’s exciting and painful. We’re witnessing Iranian suffering. My mother passed away in Missoula a few years ago. She told me she didn’t want to die before seeing freedom and liberation for Iranians. I’m thinking of her now. This would have been a dream come true—an administration and president standing with the Iranian people. We hope he doesn’t waver. We appreciate American and Israeli involvement. I’m truly cheering for victory in Iran, which would also be the victory of the Iranian people in building a new society.
Tom Schultz:
It’s good we’re pushing back with strength, not politics.
Dr. Mehrdad Kia:
Before, we tried to bribe this regime to give up nukes. They won’t be bought. The only language they understand is force.
Tom Schultz:
I know this is both hopeful and painful. Many are praying for the people of Iran. Our thoughts and prayers are with you, Dr. Kia. Thank you.
Dr. Mehrdad Kia:
Thank you, Tom. It’s always wonderful to speak with you and your listeners.
Tom Schultz:
Get some rest, sir.
Dr. Mehrdad Kia:
Thank you very much.
